Weekly Beluga Insights

Currently writing this late on July 4th, we had another rough week in the markets. Ethereum has now fully retraced its pump from the ETF approval news a few weeks ago, and coins across the board are struggling. Oddly, one of the biggest culprits of this dump is the German Government, which is seemingly in the process of liquidating over $4B of Bitcoin onto the market which it seized from criminals over the last few years (see their wallet here). Typically with amounts this large we would see an auction process to minimize market impact, however this time they seem not to care. It’s unlikely they will liquidate this entire amount through market orders as they have been, but there’s been no communication from their end so we will see. In the grand scheme of things, $4B of selling pressure won’t have much impact on a bull market.

One interesting data point is how large the short interest on majors has become - overall open interest continues to rise with each dump in the market, which indicates shorts being piled on rather than longs being liquidated or closed. Crypto markets love to squeeze shorts, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a strong pop in the near future especially with Ethereum ETFs expected to start trading within the month.

Major Movers of the Week

• Tron (TRX) +5.36%

• Lido Dao (LDO) -27.79%

• Pepe (PEPE) -24.57%

• Ethena (ENA) -24.19%

• Pendle (PENDLE) -22.03%

Public Trading Wallet Update

The market-wide dump this week was rough for all traders, with some Top 100 alt coins down 30% in the last few days alone. While for those who are already fully allocated into the market this is pure pain, for those who have some dry powder on the sidelines it’s a great time to accumulate high-conviction coins. We originally started the Public Trading Wallet with $100,000 USD, and since I have been patient scaling into our positions we still have about 30% of our balance in stable coins.

I believe this is likely the last big market flush that we get before the Ethereum ETF inflows hit and things start reversing, so following this thesis I purchased another $5,000 of Fantom (FTM) at $0.45 which has been one of my highest conviction tokens over the last few weeks. For a more in depth read of the FTM thesis, you can visit the newsletter edition from 2 weeks ago where I broke down the main pillars of why I believe Fantom is an exciting token. Of course nobody knows where the market is going in the short term, and should Bitcoin continue to fall it will also continue to have a negative impact on FTM and other alts. However, with revised ETH ETF start dates in the next 2 weeks, as well as a large amount of discomfort in the market stemming from how choppy this Summer has been, I believe we’re looking at a reversal soon.

Quick Quips: Catch Up on What You Missed

• Circle’s USDC Approved in Europe under MiCA Regulations

• Web3 Prediction Market Polymarket Sees Volumes Soar

• Bittensor identifies vulnerability behind $8M Exploit

• Mining Giant Riot Boosts BTC Production by 19% in June

Tweet of the Week

Sums up the last few weeks in crypto perfectly

Recent Beluga Content

Disclaimer

The content on this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. While Beluga strives to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of information, there may be discrepancies when comparing our data to that of financial institutions, service providers, or specific product websites. Always consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.

Will McKinnon is the Head of Content for Beluga and has spent every day for many years trading coins. For that reason there are too many to name, however his largest holdings by a significant margin are Ethereum and Bitcoin. NFA DYOR