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Weekly Beluga Insights

With the US election rapidly approaching, blockchain-based prediction market app Polymarket continues to dominate attention even among mainstream audiences. One of the biggest mysteries of the platform has been the anonymous user behind 4 accounts that have placed over $30M on Donald Trump winning the Presidency, pushing the gap between Trump and Harris to over 20 points at time of writing. Initial rumors seemed to indicate this may be an attempt to manipulate public perception around the election, however reports have now surfaced showing the user is actually a French national with a long history of political betting.

While Polymarket may not always be the most accurate predictor of events, the speed at which the market corrects itself is pretty impressive. When Israel launched their counter-attack against Iran yesterday afternoon, Polymarket odds reflected this almost 30 minutes prior to major news outlets reporting on it. As long as it doesn’t get regulated into oblivion by the trigger-happy lawmakers I expect Polymarket will only grow to be more accurate and timely. As it currently stands most of the betting volume is coming from crypto users who are just looking to make money rather than domain experts on the various subjects being bet gambled on, so growing the user base to include more mainstream audiences will be an important step.

Major Movers of the Week

Public Trading Wallet Update

The week started off hot with BTC nearly reaching $70k before news of the Israel and Iran conflict hit the tapes and brought the market back down. Interestingly Bitcoin and Solana are still holding quite strong off that dip with Solana reaching another all-time-high vs. Ethereum this week. Bitcoin’s strength could be tied to the massive inflows that the ETFs have generated with $900M in new capital flowing in this week alone. Solana on the other hand derives its popularity from the memecoin casino, which honestly doesn’t look like it’s stopping any time soon. As long as there is the potential for life changing gains over night, eager gamblers will continue to step in the ring.

With Ethereum’s continued weakness vs. its peers, sentiment among traders on Twitter is pretty horrible. In fact if you bought Ethereum a year ago today, before the big market run up in the Spring, you’d still only be up about 10%. I personally still believe Ethereum is where the “real tech” is and will be built, and it remains the only choice for many institutions due to its security guarantees. If we’re right about the market cycle and this bull run isn’t nearly over, DeFi will have its run which as we’ve talked about predominantly benefits the Ethereum ecosystem. Until that happens we’ll just keep an eye on our positions and see how things develop, I remain quite bullish everything considered.

Catch Up on What You Missed

• Binance’s Gambaryan has left Nigeria following 8-month detention

• AI memecoins endorsed by the Truth Terminal chatbot see double-digit price drop

• Farcaster’s monthly revenue is down 96% compared to its February peak

• Coinbase sees AI agents and crypto driving economic boom day after CEO Brian Armstrong offers memecoin trading bot a wallet

• Golden State Warriors replace FTX with Coinbase as new crypto partner

Tweet of the Week

When there’s a financial incentive, people react very quickly.

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Disclaimer

The content on this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. While Beluga strives to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of information, there may be discrepancies when comparing our data to that of financial institutions, service providers, or specific product websites. Always consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.

Will McKinnon is the Head of Content for Beluga and has spent every day for many years trading coins. For that reason there are too many to name, however his largest holdings by a significant margin are Ethereum and Bitcoin. NFA DYOR