The Beluga Brief
Posts
🐳 Daily Edition: Crypto Divergence from Stock Market Deepens

🐳 Daily Edition: Crypto Divergence from Stock Market Deepens

Well we're finally getting the "decoupling" we all asked for, unfortunately it's going the wrong direction though...

Beluga & Will McKinnon
June 29, 2026

At time of writing Bitcoin is still defending that $60k line, but the same institutional buyers who were passively buying billions of the ETFs have flipped the other way: US spot BTC ETFs have now bled just over $4B in June, their worst month since launching in January 2024. 2026 YTD flows have also now flipped net negative, with BlackRock’s IBIT shedding $444.5M on Friday alone — another “largest ever,” to the downside unfortunately.

Monday Session Heatmap, Source: Beluga, Coingecko

The obvious question is whether we see a reversal of this trend in July, but the answer is decidedly less apparent. While the stock market has enjoyed one of its best quarters since the government was mailing people free money in 2020, crypto has missed the party. This divergence has only grown throughout the war with Iran, as equities still jump every time Trump starts the ceasefire speeches while crypto largely lies dormant.

Outside of price action, the major story we’ve been following over the last few days revolves around the allegations by the Wall Street Journal that Polymarket affiliates were faking bet slips in order to promote the service. Out of 1,105 promotional videos across 10 creators that were reviewed, roughly 70% showed a bet, yet a whopping 0 of them were real. For a platform whose entire pitch is based on verifiability and the truth, this is a really bad look to say the least.