• The Beluga Brief
  • Posts
  • šŸ³ Weekly Edition: Crypto deep in the red, where do we go from here?

šŸ³ Weekly Edition: Crypto deep in the red, where do we go from here?

Macro conditions and short-term holders lead to massive sell-off on majors, alt-coins

Welcome to the Beluga Brief, where we deliver data-driven insights to your inbox for free, spending our time in the crypto trenches and combing through thousands of crypto news feeds so you donā€™t have to.

Weekly Beluga Insights

Today concludes one of the worst weeks for crypto in a long time, with Bitcoin falling almost 20% to in the last 7 days. This has of course wreaked havoc on the rest of the market: despite BTC dropping so much, Bitcoin dominance nearly hit an all-time-high. Suffice it to say, alt-coins are down bad. We could point to some macro reasons (tariff war, ongoing conflicts in Israel and Ukraine), however the reality is the hit crypto has taken is much larger than you would expect given these catalysts. When compared to the stock market, sure the S&P has taken a hit but nothing like 20% in a week.

This likely means the dump is coming from uncertainty within the crypto market itself, which is further evidenced by the amount of short-term holders selling. Short-term holders have now sent 55,000 BTC to exchanges, worth over $4 billion dollars, within the last 24 hours alone (source: CryptoQuant). It really is poetic that people who have bought since Trump was inaugurated would be heavily responsible for reversing the gains on Bitcoin after Trump won the election. Recent negative catalysts such as the tariffs, Bybitā€™s hack, and of course the Javier Milei memecoin debacle seem to have been enough to shake out the newer entrants to the space, while longer term holders have been far less active.

Major Movers of the Week

Token

Price

7d Change

Story (IP)

$5.50

+19.74%

Berachain (BERA)

$8.71

+16.62%

Celestia (TIA)

$4.09

+14.13%

Maker (MKR)

$1,582

+9.00%

Aptos (APT)

$6.47

+8.07%

Public Trading Wallet Update

Despite some vicious price action, Iā€™ll honestly say Iā€™m pretty happy with how our portfolio has held up. Bitcoin has erased nearly all the gains it made since the start of the bull run, and yet our alt-centric portfolio remains strongly in profit. Itā€™s clear from the sentiment on X that most cannot say the same, yet I also think this is probably indicative of a (local) market bottom. Provided this bull run isnā€™t over, which I strongly believe is not the case, those coins which have retained value throughout the craziness should be expected to outperform.

One obvious example here is PLUME, which despite having launched only a few weeks ago in the midst of one of the worst environments to launch a new coin still sits up 40% from its initial listing of $1B FDV. I have to disclose that Plume is a paid partner of Beluga, however Iā€™d be complimenting them here regardless: that strength relative to other alt-coins is seriously impressive. Taking a step back from one specific coin, the RWA sector as a whole continues to heat up and progress no matter the market conditions. This is definitely something to keep an eye on if you have cash on the sideline still, as I think an attention rotation to ā€œrealā€ protocols is inevitable.

Tweet of the Week

These stats are crazy, but whatā€™s more crazy is even with the market as it is there are still almost 100 memecoins bonding off of pump.fun every day.

Recent Beluga Content

Do your Crypto taxes for FREE with Awaken

Awaken is a crypto tax software built for degens. They help do taxes on 300k+ wallets, so whether you are in the trenches or yield farming, they got you covered.

And if you sign up by March 1st 100% of your Solana transactions are FREE (+ free Bitcoin, Hyperliquid, and Sui transactions too). 

Hereā€™s how it works:

  1. Connect all your wallets & exchanges (theyā€™ve got Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Base, Coinbase, Kraken, Geminiā€”you name it).

  2. Auto-import & label every transaction (DeFi, NFTs, LPing, lendingā€”no sweat).

  3. Download the exact tax report you need (with coverage for dozens of countries).

The best part? You can start using Awaken right now for freeā€”and breeze through tax season like a pro.

Disclaimer

The content on this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. While Beluga strives to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of information, there may be discrepancies when comparing our data to that of financial institutions, service providers, or specific product websites. Always consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.

Will McKinnon is the Head of Content for Beluga and has spent every day for many years trading coins. For that reason there are too many to name, however his largest holdings by a significant margin are Ethereum and Bitcoin. NFA DYOR