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What happened today?

We knew today was going to be rough given the action on US futures last night, and indeed it was. We’ve now seen the largest two-day decline since COVID, and we’re nearing one of the largest downturns in the 21st century so far. For me, it’s important to highlight that while there have been bigger drop-offs in the last few decades, this is the first time it was intentional. Interestingly, however, earlier today a fake headline hit which claimed that Trump was looking to pause tariffs for 90 days in order to renegotiate terms, causing both the stock and crypto markets to rapidly surge. Of course this was short lived, however it showed there is very much still life in the market provided we don’t go full steam ahead down this tariff road. Trump decided to double down after this fake headline, stating he intended to raise the tariffs on China by another 50% if they do not withdraw their reciprocal 34% increase.

One quote from Jamie Dimon’s annual letter to shareholders that really stood out to me is the following: “America First is fine, as long as it doesn’t end up being America alone.” Many of the trade ‘imbalances’ that exist, including the one with China, exist because of relative advantages in production, labor or supply. That means when you mess with that complex ecosystem, you are messing with yourself too. I’m no tariff expert by any means but these surface-level conclusions seem self-evident to me… clearly not to everyone.

Trading Talk

I don’t think this is a time to be actively trading, so instead of looking at new picks let’s take a look at how the market has held up throughout the carnage. Today we’ve seen $1.6B in levered positions wiped out, with Ethereum falling to a 2 year low under $1500. This drove some large DeFi positions to also get liquidated, including one involving 67,570 ETH resulting in a $100M loss for the holder. Not all liquidations are bad, however, as we saw the scammer behind the ZKasino rug over $25M on Hyperliquid.

BTC experienced a sharp decline today as well, dropping under $75k at its lowest point. For reference, just 3 months ago on the day of the inauguration BTC was trading at $105k. 26% is a steep decline, however with the S&P down 16% in the same time frame I can honestly say I’m pretty impressed with how BTC has held up given its risk-on nature. One side of the market that is still crushing it despite market movements is stablecoins: yesterday we reached a new high of $235B in stablecoins market cap, an aggregated measurement of all stablecoins on the market. Tether is currently the third largest crypto by market cap, and USDC is 6th… we should have bought USDT. Jokes aside, stablecoins solve a number of problems that exist in the real world and form one of the strongest use cases for blockchain technology. Crypto has a real branding problem in that most of what we are known for can be boiled down to gambling and speculation — stablecoin adoption is a major step in changing our global image, and it’s happening faster every day.

Tweet of the Day

While not our normal funny tweet, in light of all the discussion around tariffs I thought this was a great read from legendary investor Ray Dalio.

Biggest Headlines

The Beluga intern has been hard at work gathering all the most important crypto news stories so you have them in one place!

The Majors

• Bitcoin and stocks pump, then dump on false report of 90-day tariffs pause

Alt Coins and Stocks

• Saylor’s Strategy discloses nearly $6 billion in Q1 unrealized losses as selloff halts buying spree

• All-time record volume for SPY with $123B traded: Eric Balchunas

Stablecoins and Tokenized RWAs

• Ripple, BCG project $18.9T tokenized asset market by 2033

Random

•  Dogecoin is down bad, but Fartcoin rises above market chaos

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The content on this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. While Beluga strives to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of information, there may be discrepancies when comparing our data to that of financial institutions, service providers, or specific product websites. Always consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.

Will McKinnon is the Head of Content for Beluga and has spent every day for many years trading coins. For that reason there are too many to name, however his largest holdings by a significant margin are Ethereum and Bitcoin. NFA DYOR