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  • šŸ³ Daily Recap: Market Uneasiness Leads to Sharp BTC Decline

šŸ³ Daily Recap: Market Uneasiness Leads to Sharp BTC Decline

Why we tend to see sharp retraces of big moves in the market and more!

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Welcome to the Beluga Brief, where we deliver data-driven insights to your inbox every week, spending our time in the crypto trenches and combing through thousands of crypto news feeds so you donā€™t have to.

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What happened today?

Despite some uncertainty in the market this week it doesnā€™t seem like things are slowing down at all, with a number of high profile token launches like Berachain and Monad coming very soon. Not to beat a dead horse, but I really think the market is underestimating just how big an impact getting rid of the regulators that terrorized our industry for years is. When Trump is sworn in later this month and things officially change over, the real game starts. Until then volatility should mostly be treated as noise in my opinion, donā€™t let quick market moves shake you out of your positions.

In another twist that just hit the tapes at time of writing, the US DOJ has been approved to sell $6.5B in Bitcoin that it seized from Silk Road many years ago. While this is clearly just a slap in the face to the incoming administration and the crypto market as a whole given Trumpā€™s remarks that he would not be selling any of the seized BTC, itā€™s also likely that a decent chunk of the negative price action we saw over the last 24 hours was due to insiders front running this news. Looking back on previous government sales of crypto, usually the anticipation is worse than the event and we tend to climb higher after it happens.

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Well the sentiment in the market has shifted significantly since our last newsletter on Monday, with BTC dropping over 8% in a single day before seemingly finding a local bottom at about $92,500. This of course led to huge liquidations in the leverage-happy market weā€™re in with Coinglass reporting hundreds of millions in liquidated positions in the last 24 hours alone. As you can see in the heatmap below, the price action of the last 48 hours has caused most of the buildups of levered longs to get wiped out, and we now see hotspots of shorts between here and $100k.

In relatively low liquidity environments such as crypto these days, markets are far more subject to the whims of the market makers who profit off of range-bound volatility. Weā€™ve seen this pattern of liquidations several times over the last few weeks and so itā€™s not really a surprise to see us sweep these lows again, however I would also expect to see a strong bounce up through the newly placed short positions.

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The content on this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. While Beluga strives to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of information, there may be discrepancies when comparing our data to that of financial institutions, service providers, or specific product websites. Always consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.

Will McKinnon is the Head of Content for Beluga and has spent every day for many years trading coins. For that reason there are too many to name, however his largest holdings by a significant margin are Ethereum and Bitcoin. NFA DYOR